Meta's decision to encrypt private chats by default is timed to coincide with a period of political uncertainty before Parliamentary elections in the EU and UK. This article explores why that timing matters. 

Meta's surprise announcement that it is now encrypting private chats on its Messenger platform has been perfectly timed to take advantage of political change in both the EU and UK.

Both will hold Parliamentary elections in 2024. The uncertainty of a new Commission and Parliament in the EU, and a potentially dramatic change of government in the UK, creates an environment where the political headwinds that sought to impede encrypted chat services are dying back.

The obstacles that had been placed in its way have been either weakened, or are in the process of being removed. It therefore makes sense for Meta to have taken this action now, before a new cohort of political leaders settles in next year.

In the UK, it is widely expected that there will be a shift in power to Labour, with potentially large-scale losses to the Conservatives. The timing of the election is not fixed, but is likely to be either May or October. A May election would mean that the UK is on election footing from January. Nothing much will get done in government in that time, and any critical policy decisions will be held over. Even if it's October, we are likely to see a slowing down in government in the interim.

Despite that fact that powers to impose scanning requirements on end-to-end encrypted chats – which would mean that encryption became impossible - are in the new Online Safety Act, it's unlikely that any progress will be made towards implementation. The uncertainty around the election and expected change of government will push it back to at least 2025. This is also in line with the Ofcom roadmap.

Moreover, the recent change of Home Secretary has moved the political goalposts. The two previous Home Secretaries were forthright opponents of any move by Meta to encrypt its chat services, launching public and outspoken attacks in the media. The new Home Secretary, James Cleverly, is now embroiled in a disastrous battle over an unpopular immigration policy that poses a threat to the Conservative Party, as well as the international reputation of the country, and portends the downfall of the government (and that is not even a controversial statement). Central to the policy is a move to disapply the European Convention on Human Rights. Whilst they are distracted, with no time or bandwidth to drive through new policies, Meta can get its service out.

The Home Office position matters because it was responsible for the powers in the Online Safety Act that apply to encrypted services. These measures create a form of mass surveillance, and interfere with rights in the European Convention.

There is some confusion about the current role of the Home Office, as DSIT is the lead Ministry. However, it is named in the government's publicity announcement of the Online Safety Act on 26 October, so we assume it retains a role in overseeing the Act. 

Meanwhile, the EU is in the process of re-writing its policy on monitoring of end-to-end encrypted platforms. It has just reached a political agreement on the Child Sexual Abuse Regulation which would leave the way clear for Meta to encrypt its Messenger chat.

The revised EU Regulation excludes end-to-end encrypted platforms from content detection requirements. The agreement resolves an ongoing political battle over how to address child sexual abuse material online. It creates a much-improved balance that manages to both protect children and privacy. ( See EU law set for new course on child online safety). 

With a proposal like this on the table, and enjoying cross-party support in the European Parliament, any political opposition is likely to be muted. Moreover, the Child Sexual Abuse Regulation is not expected to be finalised before the EU Parliamentary elections next May. The waiting time – even if there is less uncertainty – offers a window for the new encrypted service to bed down.

Just to add to the uncertainty, there are also three Bills before the United States Congress that threaten end-to-end encrypted services, in the run up to next year's Presidential election.

Obviously, Meta did not decide to roll out end-to-end encryption because of elections. Something like this takes meticulous technical planning. It may just be luck that Meta has won itself time to do the roll out before the next wave of political attacks.

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Meta's announcement is here 
For the technical aspects of Meta's announcement, I defer to Alec Muffett.

Media - feel free to cite this article or contact me for a quote. 

You are free to cite from this article. Kindly acknowledge Dr Monica Horten as the author and provide a link back.

I provide independent advice on policy issues related to online content. I specialise in interpreting amendments to laws. It was a core element of my PhD methodology and I've been doing it ever since. If you need help with the Online Safety Act and the Ofcom consultation, please get in touch.